Where are Russia’s top generals after Wagner Mutiny? Following a failed mercenary mutiny aimed at overthrowing the top brass, Russia’s most senior generals have disappeared from public view, despite President Vladimir Putin‘s efforts to reclaim his authority and unsubstantiated rumors of at least one arrest.
Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, has not been in public or on state television since the failed insurrection on Saturday when mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded Gerasimov’s surrender.
He has also not been referenced in a press release issued by the defence ministry since June 9.
Where are Russia’s top generals after Wagner Mutiny?
Gerasimov, 67, is Russia’s combat commander in Ukraine and the owner of one of Russia’s three “nuclear briefcases,” according to some Western military analysts.
General Sergei Surovikin, the deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine and dubbed “General Armageddon” by the Russian press for his hardline tactics in the Syrian conflict, is also missing.
According to a New York Times article based on a U.S. intelligence briefing, he had advanced information about the rebellion and Russian authorities were investigating whether he was complicit.
The Kremlin downplayed the news on Wednesday, saying there would be a lot of speculation and gossip.
Surovikin’s detention was reported by the Russian-language version of the Moscow Times and a military blogger, while other military correspondents with substantial followings in Russia indicated he and other senior commanders were being questioned about their suspected role in the mutiny.
Surovikin had not been arrested, according to Reuters.
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Rybar, an important Telegram messaging app channel operated by a former Russian military ministry communications officer, announced a purge.
He said the government was aiming to weed out military members who were seen to have shown “a lack of decisiveness” in putting down the mutiny, despite claims that portions of the armed services did nothing to halt Wagner fighters in the early stages of the insurrection.
“The armed insurgency by the Wagner private military company has become a pretext for a massive purge in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces,” Rybar explained.
If confirmed, such a move may change the way Russia fights its war in Ukraine, which it refers to as a “special military operation,” and sow divisions in the ranks at a time when Moscow is attempting to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
It might also solidify or raise the ranks of other senior military and security leaders considered loyal.
The defence ministry made no public statement about what was going on.
Some Russian and Western military and political analysts believe Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, a veteran Putin ally who Prigozhin wanted to bring down with Gerasimov because of his alleged incompetence, may actually now be safer in his job.
“I think he (Prigozhin) actually expected something would be done about Shoigu and Gerasimov, that Putin would rule in his favor,” Michael Kofman, a Russian military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment think tank, wrote on Twitter.
“Instead, his mutiny may have ensured their continued tenure, despite being universally recognized as incompetent, and widely detested in the Russian Federation’s armed forces.”
Viktor Zolotov, the former chief of the National Guard and Putin’s bodyguard, appears to be another benefactor after publicly declaring that his soldiers were willing to “stand to the death” to defend Moscow from Wagner.
In the aftermath of the rebellion, he has spoken of acquiring heavy weaponry and tanks for his forces.
Gerasimov was conspicuously absent as Putin hailed the army for averting civil war on Tuesday, in contrast to Shoigu, who has made several public appearances subsequently.
Surovikin, Gerasimov’s deputy, was last seen on Saturday in a video pleading with Prigozhin to end his rebellion. He appeared tired, and it was unclear whether he was speaking under duress.
According to Alexei Venediktov, a well-connected writer, Surovikin has not been in contact with his family since Saturday, and his bodyguards have also gone silent.
Prigozhin, who had spent months criticizing Shoigu and Gerasimov for their failure in the Ukraine war, had regularly complimented Surovikin, who is well-known in the army for his experience in Chechnya and Syria.
Surovikin, who served as overall commander of the Ukraine war until Gerasimov was appointed, is viewed as an effective operator by Western military analysts and portions of the Ukrainian military.
Russian war correspondents had mentioned him as a potential future military minister.
