Accumulated flood losses have likely grown to $22-24bn, economist says.
Dr. Hafiz A. Pasha says, the cumulative total of losses from severe flooding due to GDP growth, capital assets, livestock, and other factors has reached the $22-$24 billion mark.
He stated his concern that the faltering economy of Pakistan could suffer $30 billion in total losses across all accounts.
“We have calculated estimates of cumulative losses and just shared them with the government. According to our calculations, the country suffered economic losses of $12 billion as a result of the decline in GDP growth. $6 billion in losses resulted from the capital cost due to damages to homes and other infrastructure.
The worked out losses ranged between $22 and $24 billion when we shared our estimates with the government a few days ago, according to renowned economist and former finance minister Dr. Hafiz A. Pasha, who spoke to The News on Tuesday. “The livestock losses stood at $4 billion and around $2 billion on other accounts,” he said.
Given the country’s record-breaking rains, he estimated that the total accumulated damages could reach the $30 billion mark.
Dr. Pasha calculated the precise losses in entirety and shared them with the government, but the administration has so far appeared unable to produce its final numbers.
Accumulated flood losses have likely grown to $22-24bn, economist saysAccording to renowned economist Dr. Hafiz A. Pasha, the cumulative total of losses from severe flooding due to GDP growth, capital assets, livestock, and other factors has reached the $22-$24 billion mark.
He stated his concern that the faltering economy of Pakistan could suffer $30 billion in total losses across all accounts.
“We have calculated estimates of cumulative losses and just shared them with the government. According to our calculations, the country suffered economic losses of $12 billion as a result of the decline in GDP growth. $6 billion in losses resulted from the capital cost due to damages to homes and other infrastructure.
The worked out losses ranged between $22 and $24 billion when we shared our estimates with the government a few days ago, according to renowned economist and former finance minister Dr. Hafiz A. Pasha, who spoke to The News on Tuesday. “The livestock losses stood at $4 billion and around $2 billion on other accounts,” he said.
Given the country’s record-breaking rains, he estimated that the total accumulated damages could reach the $30 billion mark.
Dr. Pasha calculated the precise losses in entirety and shared them with the government, but the administration has so far appeared unable to produce its final numbers.
The government initially estimated losses at $10 billion following the occurrence of these unprecedentedly severe floods, but this cost quickly increased to $12.5 billion, was revised upward, and the government eventually estimated losses at $18 billion. In the meantime, the UN Secretary-General visited Pakistan and estimated total losses at $30 billion.
The provinces have now received a template from the Ministry of Planning, which they are required to complete and return as soon as possible. The lengthy template may require the provinces to respond after at least one week, and the planning ministry has been tasked with compiling all data before updating the total accumulated losses.
The Planning Commission had first estimated that the entire losses on the economic front amounted at $9.3 billion, but the Ministry of Finance, Planning, and the State Bank of Pakistan collaborated to determine the precise losses on the economic front.
Research Advisor Dr. M. Ali Chaudhry of the State Bank of Pakistan tweeted, “we find FY23 estimate of GDP growth reduces to roughly 2% as per end-August data” (against the envisaged target of 5 percent).
“We might be entirely mistaken. Going back to the 2010 floods, we do a countercheck. The difference between our in-sample estimate for FY11 growth post-floods and the actual 3.6% real GDP growth is 10 basis points. This gives this strategy some confidence, although a bottom design could be preferable,” he noted. He said that as additional tehsil-level data becomes available in the upcoming weeks, they would continue to fine-tune the high-level estimations.
The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, on the other hand, have been tasked by the government with developing a Damage Need Assessment (DNA). In order to ask the international world for assistance in launching Islamabad’s plan to construct or rebuild better in flood-affected areas, the government and donors will be able to reconcile their data.
Aftab Alam Khan, a climate change expert and expert in Pakistan’s development sector, confirmed that Pakistan saw exceptional monsoon rains in 2022 when he was contacted. Provinces of Sindh and Balochistan had rainfall that was almost 500% and 437% above average, respectively. The fact that some sections of Sindh had more than 1,700 mm of rain this year demonstrates the severity of climate changes. Such a calamity emphasises Pakistan’s and comparable nations’ need for a Loss and Damage Facility.
“In the context of the upcoming Conference of the Parties 27 (COP27) of the United Nations International Conference on Climate Change, Pakistan should join forces with other developing nations to present its case for the establishment of the Loss and Damage Finance Facility and demand G20 countries to ensure additional funds and G20 should also make real cuts in GHG.
Loss and Damage refer to the effects of climate change that exceed human capacity for adaptation and occur when a community lacks the resources to access available adaptation choices, he said.
The government initially estimated losses at $10 billion following the occurrence of these unprecedentedly severe floods, but this cost quickly increased to $12.5 billion, was revised upward, and the government eventually estimated losses at $18 billion. In the meantime, the UN Secretary-General visited Pakistan and estimated total losses at $30 billion.
The provinces have now received a template from the Ministry of Planning, which they are required to complete and return as soon as possible. The lengthy template may require the provinces to respond after at least one week, and the planning ministry has been tasked with compiling all data before updating the total accumulated losses.
The Planning Commission had first estimated that the entire losses on the economic front amounted at $9.3 billion, but the Ministry of Finance, Planning, and the State Bank of Pakistan collaborated to determine the precise losses on the economic front.
Research Advisor Dr. M. Ali Chaudhry of the State Bank of Pakistan tweeted, “we find FY23 estimate of GDP growth reduces to roughly 2% as per end-August data” (against the envisaged target of 5 percent).
“We might be entirely mistaken. Going back to the 2010 floods, we do a countercheck. The difference between our in-sample estimate for FY11 growth post-floods and the actual 3.6% real GDP growth is 10 basis points. This gives this strategy some confidence, although a bottom design could be preferable,” he noted. He said that as additional tehsil-level data becomes available in the upcoming weeks, they would continue to fine-tune the high-level estimations.
The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, on the other hand, have been tasked by the government with developing a Damage Need Assessment (DNA). In order to ask the international world for assistance in launching Islamabad’s plan to construct or rebuild better in flood-affected areas, the government and donors will be able to reconcile their data.
Aftab Alam Khan, a climate change expert and expert in Pakistan’s development sector, confirmed that Pakistan saw exceptional monsoon rains in 2022 when he was contacted. Provinces of Sindh and Balochistan had rainfall that was almost 500% and 437% above average, respectively. The fact that some sections of Sindh had more than 1,700 mm of rain this year demonstrates the severity of climate changes. Such a calamity emphasises Pakistan’s and comparable nations’ need for a Loss and Damage Facility.
“In the context of the upcoming Conference of the Parties 27 (COP27) of the United Nations International Conference on Climate Change, Pakistan should join forces with other developing nations to present its case for the establishment of the Loss and Damage Finance Facility and demand G20 countries to ensure additional funds and G20 should also make real cuts in GHG.
Loss and Damage refer to the effects of climate change that exceed human capacity for adaptation and occur when a community lacks the resources to access available adaptation choices, he said.
