‘Ukraine fighting is deadlocked’, says spy chief Kyrylo Budanov.
According to the spy chief of the Ukrainian military intelligence agency, fighting in Ukraine is now at a deadlock since neither Russia nor Ukraine can make major progress. At the same time, Kyiv waits for more cutting-edge weapons from Western allies.
“The situation is just stuck,” Kyrylo Budanov told the BBC in an interview.
The majority of the worst fights have taken place in and around Bakhmut in the eastern Donetsk region since November when Ukrainian forces recovered the southern city of Kherson.
While winter has slowed the pace of Ukraine’s ground operations along the 1,000 km (620 miles) front line, Russian forces elsewhere seem to be on the defensive.
With very large losses, Mr Budanov claimed that Russia was “now completely at a dead end” and that the Kremlin had chosen to announce another conscription drive.
Victory will come to those who keep fighting. Victory will come to the heroes of Ukraine. Russian communism is increasingly deadlocked. Let’s go all the way to Moscow to make Putin pay for starting the war.
— Amateur sniper (@rotatedata) April 8, 2024
However, he continued, Ukrainian forces still lacked the resources to advance in numerous directions. ‘Ukraine fighting is deadlocked’, says spy chief Kyrylo Budanov.
“We can’t defeat them in all directions comprehensively. Neither can they,” he said.
“We’re very much looking forward to new weapons supplies, and to the arrival of more advanced weapons.”
After a string of Russian military failures earlier this month, Ukrainian officials issued a warning about the potential for another land invasion by Moscow’s soldiers from Belarus at the beginning of 2023.
Tens of thousands of reservists being trained in Russia could be involved in the drive, which they claimed could include a second attempt to take control of Kyiv, the nation’s capital.
However, Mr Budanov brushed off Russian efforts in Belarus, including the relocation of thousands of troops, as an effort to force Ukraine to redeploy forces from the front lines in the south and east to the north.
He claimed that recently, a train carrying Russian military halted at the Belarus-Ukraine border and left, only to return several hours later with all of the soldiers on board.
“They did it openly during the day so that everyone would see it, even if [we] didn’t want to,” adding that he saw no real, imminent threat from the troops in Belarus.
“As of now, I don’t see any signs of preparations for an invasion of Kyiv or northern areas from Belarus.”
The interview in Mr Budanov’s dimly lit office in Kyiv took place days after Russian President Vladimir Putin travelled to the Belarusian capital, Minsk, for the first time in more than three years.
His visit sparked rumours that he could attempt to convince longtime ally and President Alexander Lukashenko to send Belarusian soldiers to Ukraine.
According to Mr Budanov, the Belarusian society will not support any further involvement in the conflict, and analysts have questioned the readiness of its 48,000-strong army.
Belarus has served as a launch pad for Russian attacks.
“That’s why President Lukashenko is taking all steps to prevent a disaster for his country,” he said.
Since retaking Kherson, Ukrainian forces and Russian forces have been fighting bloody trench battles that have been compared to World War One in the area of Bakhmut.
By taking the city, Russia would cut off Ukraine’s supply lines and create a path for an attack on other eastern Ukrainian strongholds like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
According to Mr Budanov, the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary force, is in charge of the offensive.
Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the town’s founder, is thought to be seeking to seize control of it as a political prize amid disputes amongst top Russian authorities.
Away from the battlefields, Russia has waged a persistent aerial assault since mid-October, using missiles and drones to attack Ukraine’s vital infrastructure, leaving millions without heat, light, or water.
The strikes, according to Mr. Budanov, are likely to continue, but he claimed that Russia won’t be able to withstand the intensity of the attacks due to diminishing missile stocks and the country’s incapacity to restock them.
Although Iran supplied the majority of the drones used in Russia’s attacks, the spy chief claims that Iran has so far declined to deliver missiles to Russia because it is aware that Western nations will likely impose sanctions on Tehran, which is already subject to crippling sanctions due to its nuclear programme.
The war may be deadlocked for the time being, but Mr. Budanov is adamant that Ukraine will eventually reclaim all of the areas that is currently occupied, including the peninsula of Crimea that Russia annexed in 2014.
When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, Ukraine declared its independence, and he envisions it reverting to those borders.
