The international relations between Pakistan, China, and USA have decades-old history. Sometimes they have proved to be a well-communicated relationship, while sometimes, the triangle has resulted in some irreversible damage. However, the most adverse relationship has been between USA and Pakistan, a very pertinent example is the war on terror right after 9/11. On the other hand, China is vocal about its policy regarding its neighbors’ prosperity, stating it is a cause of its own prosperity. And true to its words, the friendship has lasted despite several mishaps during the ongoing course of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China’s flagship project, its Belt and Road Initiative. This article analyzes China’s and the USA’s strategy towards Pakistan and what it means for the future of Pakistan as both countries struggle to dominate the world as superpowers.
Introduction:
Looking into the future, the aftermath of USA-China as rivals will particularly be significant for the South Asian security climate, where the US has put resources into India to offset China, while Pakistan has grown close connections to China. The speed with which the US-China contention is strengthening, and the bipartisan idea of US resistance to China have caused a particularly unsafe circumstance for Pakistan. Entirely depending on China is not the most suitable option for Pakistan in light of the US-China rivalry.
It is important to consider Pakistani viewpoints concerning the unfurling US-China contention and to evaluate what vital choices Pakistan has for exploring the rough waters of this extraordinary superpower rivalry.
Pakistan’s decisions regarding future and current policies highly depend on the USA’s strategy towards China. This is definitely threatening Pakistan’s national security while the anxiety on the economic front exists like never before. The future also seems very unexpected and at stake. The US has helped Pakistan in the past, but in times of need, it has often backed out or said nothing, especially against India. Furthermore, the USA’s influence has been somewhat destructive regarding regional security with respect to Afghanistan.
On the other hand, China’s approach does not seem or feel destructive. Considering it has invested tons of funds and will be doing the same despite the obstacles. The China-Pakistan Economic border is the most apparent proof of what approach China wants toward Pakistan.
Comparing both countries on a surface level definitely has some eye-opening realizations in favor of China. However, immediately leaving the questionable yet somewhat stable relations with the US might not be the answer. A middle ground and intense opportunity cost analysis are required to reach a verdict.
Literature Review:
Pakistan has enjoyed its cooperation with China and the United States in terms of security parameters against its neighbor India. However, the US has recently shifted its focus towards India and taken it as an ally against its power competition with China. Similarly, Pakistan and China have strengthened their ties through CPEC. These recent developments have put Pakistan into a security dilemma. Pakistan, can, however, have a working relationship with the United States to strengthen its position in the region, especially when Pakistan’s national policy now focuses on geoeconomics instead of geopolitics. While Pakistan is reaping heavy benefits from its friendship with China through CPEC, the United States can have a similar accord with Pakistan. By helping Pakistan economically, the United States can prevent Pakistan from completely relying on China, and hence keep Pakistan in its basket of allies (Hassan, 2022).
Pakistan has had strategic relations with China and the United States over the course of years regarding economics, politics, and security. In recent times, Pakistan and the United States have ties based on issues related to Afghanistan. The US has decreased military and economic aid to Pakistan; however, it still remains one of the largest exporters of Pakistani products. In contrast, China has been supplying Pakistan with a good number of weapons and has heavily supported Pakistan’s economy by initiating CPEC in the country. Moreover, China has always supported of Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, unlike the United States. The rivalry between China and the United States has intensified over the years. While Pakistan has enjoyed a good friendship with China, putting all its energy towards China will not be in Pakistan’s best interests (Ali, 2020).
China and the United States have been competitors in power maximization for a long time. However, Pakistan is a country they see as a common ally due to the former’s geopolitical position. Hence, China and the United States do everything in their power to influence Pakistan and take it to their side against the other. On the other hand, Pakistan took advantage of this power struggle between the two powers to enhance its national security and protect its borders from any Indian aggression. This strategic triangle between Pakistan, China, and the United States has had a huge strategic and geopolitical importance since the time of the Cold War. The three countries have coincided at three important points in history. Firstly, Pakistan acted as a channel to initiate talks between China and the United States in 1969-1971. Secondly, after the abolishment of the Soviet Union, and lastly on the war on terror. However, this strategic triangle may have reaped a few benefits for Pakistan as it has constantly found itself between the two superpowers; a position to choose sides (SMITH, 2011).
China’s Strategy towards Pakistan:
Despite differences in politics and culture, China and Pakistan enjoy a very strong bond based on mutual trust, brotherhood, and cooperation. Both countries believe in cooperation rather than interference due to their respect for state and territorial sovereignty. Hence a change in the government of either country does not impact their friendship. While China has helped Pakistan in terms of economy and defense, Pakistan supported China’s policy on Taiwan. Both countries agree that China is Pakistan’s ‘friend in need’ because of China’s projects of mutual benefit for its neighbors.
Pakistan is one of the first South Asian countries to have a free trade agreement with China. This agreement was signed between the two countries in November 2006, and it came into effect in July 2007 (Ministry of Commerce People’s Republic of China). The FTA not only enhanced the ties between both states but also improved the economy of Pakistan. Pakistan’s exports to China increased. The bilateral trade between Pakistan and China reaped $9278 Million in 2013 compared to $3421.96 Million in 2006, before the implementation (Irshad, 2017). The free trade agreement between both countries allowed them to prosper mutually. Pakistan provided China access to its products at a 0% duty on cotton, leather, sports goods, and bed linen. China also reduced its tariff by 50% on products such as orange juice, dairy, woven sector, and fishery. Moreover, the bilateral trade between China and Pakistan reached $14 Billion by the end of 2020 (Trade Development Authority of Pakistan, 2022).
Similarly, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has proven to be beneficial for Pakistan due to its flagship project CPEC. CPEC was an opportunity for Pakistan to enhance its economic and strategic position in the geopolitical arena. Pakistan’s FDI decreased to $ 0.82 Billion in 2011-2012 because of its involvement in the war on terror. However, with the start of CPEC in the country, Pakistan’s FDI inflows increased from $2.30 billion in 2015–16 to $2.41 billion in 2016–17 due to China’s investment in the country (Ahmed, 2018). Through CPEC, China heavily invested in the Gwadar side of the country by introducing multiple infrastructures, and energy projects, i.e., Sahiwal coal-fired power plant. These projects filled the gaps, that had been there due to energy and infrastructure issues in Pakistan. Investment in Gwadar is beneficial not only for China but also for Pakistan as it has further enhanced the geopolitical position of Pakistan in the world. Moreover, the construction of Gwadar port is pertinent in terms of Pakistan’s maritime security in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean (Ahmed, 2018).
USA’s Strategy towards Pakistan:
Pakistan and the US have had turbulent relations over the years. Be it military cooperation, economic aid, or sanctions and war on terror. The two countries have seen it all. Unlike China, the US has had an inward policy, the prosperity of the US above all. Hence, it would not be wrong if we said that the relationship between Pakistan and the US is just like the relationship between a master and their slave. Whatever Pakistan may do, it is always asked to ‘do more’ by its master, the USA. Moreover, the fall of Kabul, meaning the humiliating defeat of the US in Afghanistan, has further strained the relations between the two states.
Pakistan’s importance in the eyes of the US is only because of the former’s geostrategic position on the world map. Since China was getting stronger after its alliance with the Soviet Union in 1945, the US took this as a threat to its prosperity (Hussain, 2016). The US saw Pakistan as a stooge that it could use to spy on China and the Soviet Union, as Pakistan was in close vicinity of the two communist regimes. Hence, it advanced a hand of friendship towards the newly born country, Pakistan. Due to Pakistan’s security challenges in its early years, Liaquat Ali Khan had no other choice but to accept the US as Pakistan’s ally.
However, this alliance reaped little to no benefit for Pakistan. During the 1965 war between India and Pakistan, the US did not come to Pakistan’s aid, it instead imposed embargoes on both countries. Even at this time, China came to Pakistan’s aid (Hussain, 2016). Moreover, the US turned down Pakistan’s request to invoke the 1959 security pact during the 1971 war, benefitting India. Pakistan had no choice but to find allies similar to its own after it lost the support of the United States. Hence it shifted its attention toward the Muslim world (Hussain, 2016). Interestingly, the US assisted India during the launch of the latter’s nuclear program but threatened Pakistan with its non-proliferation policy. This hypocritical stance of the US was another setback in the relations between the two countries.
Moving ahead, Pakistan was roped in by the US after the 9/11 incident to wage war against terrorist organizations. The war on terror had dire consequences for Pakistan as the country has lost a lot in terms of economic growth, the lives of people, peace, and stability. Pakistan did everything to support the US regarding intelligence, bases (2 naval and 3 air), and logistics (Hussain T., 2005). However, Pakistan has lost more than 80,000 lives during this war (Jamal, 2021). Pakistan suffered and is still suffering the repercussions of a war that was never it’s own in the first place. The US turned cold towards Pakistan again after losing its hold on Kabul in 2021, as it blamed the latter for siding with the Afghan Taliban.
Analysis
From the discussion mentioned above, we can see that Pakistan has really interesting dynamics with the US as well as China. Both countries have played significant roles in Pakistan’s economic and political arena, and now we shall look into how this relationship may move forward.
• Pakistan’s Future with China:
China and Pakistan have a longstanding relationship, and China has made significant investments in Pakistan’s infrastructure and economy through initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China views Pakistan as an important partner in its Belt and Road Initiative and sees the country as a key gateway to the Middle East and Central Asia.
It is difficult to predict the future of Pakistan’s relationship with China with 100% certainty. However, it is likely that China will continue to be an important partner for Pakistan in the future. The investments made by China have great potential to bring about significant economic benefits to Pakistan, e.g., CPEC will help increase investment, job creation, and improve infrastructure.
At the same time, there are also potential risks and challenges associated with Pakistan’s relationship with China. Some have raised concerns about the potential for China to exert too much influence over Pakistan, or for Pakistan to become too reliant on China. There are also ongoing concerns about the potential environmental and social impacts of Chinese infrastructure projects in Pakistan.
Overall, it is important for Pakistan to carefully consider its relationship with China and to ensure that it is able to balance its own interests with those of its partners. It will be important for Pakistan to maintain strong relationships with other countries as well, in order to ensure that it has a diverse and balanced foreign policy.
• Pakistan’s Future with the United States:
On the other hand, the United States also has a complex relationship with Pakistan. The two countries have a history of cooperation, but there have also been times of tension and disagreement. The United States has provided Pakistan with significant financial assistance and military support in the past, but it has also criticized Pakistan for not doing enough to combat terrorism and militancy within its borders.
However, in terms of economic ties, Pakistan is an important market for US exports, and the United States is a major source of foreign investment and development assistance for Pakistan. The United States is also a key trading partner for Pakistan, and the two countries have a bilateral trade and investment framework agreement in place to facilitate economic cooperation. So, Pakistan cannot entirely afford to cut off ties with the US. Some form of economic ties is thus of great importance to Pakistan.
Looking at the political ties that Pakistan has had with the US, they have been somewhat strained, especially regarding the interference of the US in terms of Afghanistan and matters relating to India. These play a significant role in deciding the type of relationship Pakistan may have with the United States in the future. Thus, the future of Pakistan with respect to the United States is very uncertain and entirely depends on the decisions the US leaders make and the shape that the global world order will take in the next few years.
• How will the US-China rivalry impact Pakistan?
Looking at the surface level, Pakistan has good ties with both, China, and the US, and from our analysis, we predict a good future relationship. However, in recent years, China has started to give the US competition with regard to being the global hegemon. This strife between the two superpowers is only bound to increase.
The US-China rivalry will definitely have a significant impact on Pakistan. Pakistan has close economic and political ties with both, the United States and China, and as a result, it can be affected by the dynamics of the relationship between the two countries. For example, if the United States and China are in a trade war, it could disrupt Pakistan’s trade with both countries, affecting its economy. Similarly, if the United States and China are in a political dispute, it could affect Pakistan’s foreign policy and its relations with other countries.
Apart from economic and political aspects, there may also be military and security impacts because Pakistan has strong military and security ties with both countries. If a time comes when the US and China come face to face, it may lead to increased military tension in Pakistan as well. Furthermore, the US-China rivalry is bound to pressure Pakistan to choose sides or take positions that are not in its best interest. Thus, to sum it all up, it is important for Pakistan to maintain good relations with the United States and China in order to protect its own self-interest.
Conclusion:
The economic and political ties that Pakistan has with China and the United States are of great significance to the country, in the present as well as the future. However, both countries have different strategies toward Pakistan.
It is not productive or helpful to simply label one country’s approach as “good” or “bad.” Both China and the United States have their own interests and goals when it comes to their relationships with Pakistan, and it is important to consider the complexity and nuance of these relationships rather than oversimplifying them.
But it is important to note that Pakistan is no match to these world powers. Thus, when it comes to predicting the future, Pakistan does not have the liberty to choose sides. Whether China or the United States, Pakistan relies heavily on both countries for different reasons. It should focus on mending its relations with the United States and further strengthening its ties with China while staying out of the tussle between the two. Preserving its own self-interest should be of top priority for Pakistan.
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